Lulu 的个人资料饕餮不是我照片日志列表 工具 帮助
10月21日

chen man

还是比较欣赏这个女人的色彩动态线条审美的
http://blog.sina.com.cn/chenman






不得不说 她挺擅长拍范冰冰的
虽然很不喜欢这个女人







 
10月16日

我喜欢的狗狗

古牧
 

怎么会有这么好笑的注释...

特 征:全身被着卷毛,外表看不到脸,有尾巴。刚出生的幼犬,应在出生后二至三天内断尾。以侧对步步行,体形呈箱形,体高与体长几乎相同。全身被毛柔软弯曲,头大而圆,被长毛遮住脸面,无尾,走路摇摇晃晃,模样十分可爱。不动的时候,常被当做绒毛玩具。他的眼睛被毛覆盖着,不是很管用。据说走路经常会撞到柱子啊什么的好奇的人经常会有扒开他脸上的毛,看看他眼睛长什么样的想法。


St. Bernard

很伟大的狗狗

 
圣伯纳犬,原产丹麦,在瑞士也有悠久的历史。圣伯纳犬是超大型犬,个性十分温顺,容易亲近,它忠于主人,喜欢与小孩在一起,适合与小孩做伴,对小朋友十分宽容。容易训练,擅长救生,能适应寒冷的气候


比熊犬
Bichon Frise

卷毛比熊犬是一种娇小的,强健的白色粉扑型的狗,具有欢快的气质,他的气质从他羽毛般欢快地卷在背后的尾巴和好奇的眼神中就能体现出来。





WEST HIGHLAND WHITE TERRIER
西高地白梗

西高地白梗。幼犬和短嘴贵宾幼犬,比熊幼犬非常相似,基本上分不出区别。但是他们有非常明显的性格差异。不像贵宾听话,也不想比熊有亲和力,西高一直都是非常自恋非常自傲的犬类。







一只被遗弃的哈巴狗在路边等待主人时被拍到,此后被誉为世界上最忧伤的狗。
照片上的这只名叫“纽曼先生”的小狗坐在人行道上,被拴在路边的一根灯柱上,看上去很伤心。



******




10月13日

440 miles apart - to my dearest home

世间这样荒芜. 寂静深不可测. 如果你不在我身边. 我这样想念你.

I'm 440 miles away from you

but my heart can never leave


3月2日

hmmmm

决定以后就这么更新了 (两边都写真够麻烦的)

http://lulusmania.blogspot.com/

2月16日

twisting

“我希望离世是快乐的,我不愿再来。”--弗里达
10月28日

zz from Xiaoxian's blog

老外学中文的笔记:

Dear Tim,
  
  shall by too dull doll by too jack won,
  
  dolphin long can Jim shall by too low,
  
  shall by too when dull low, doll car low,
  
  dolphin long doll Ham Eason
  
  “more power!”
  ==================================================
  
  
  中文原文:
  第二题
  小白兔到大白兔家玩,
  大灰狼看见小白兔了,
  小白兔闻到了,逃开了,
  大灰狼大喊一声
  “莫跑!”

10月24日

pieces from Greenspan's Discussion of 'Credit Tsunami'

A necessary condition for this crisis to end is the stabilization of the home prices in the US. They will stablize and clarify the level of equity in the US homes, the ultimate collateral support for the value of much of the world mortgage-back securities.
 
To avoid severe retrenchment, banks and other financial intermediaries will need the support that only the substitution of solvent credit for private credit can bestow.
 
The breakdown is most apparent in securitization of home mortgages.
 
Without the access demand from securitizers, subprime mortgage originations are deniably the original sources of the crisis.
 
But with US home prices still rising, delinquency and foreclosure rate were deceptively modest. Losses were minimal to the most sophisticated investors in the world.
 
The consequences surge in global demand for US subprime securities by banks, hedge, and pension funds. Demand became so aggressive that too many securitizers and lenders believe they could create and sell mortgage-back securities so quickly that they never put their shareholder's capital at risk, and hence did not have the incentive to evaluate the credit quality of what they were selling. Purchasing of these toxic assets has let to huge losses. It was the failure to properly price such risk assets that precipitated the crisis.
 
The data put into the risk management models only covered only the past two decades. Instead if the model has been fed more properly by the historical period of stress, capital requirement would have been much higher, and the financial world would have been in a far better shape today in Greenspan's adjugement. In this financial environment I see no choice, Greenspan says, but to require all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue. This will offset in part the market defficiencies stumming from the failures of counterparty surveillance. Regulatory changes in fraud settlement and securitization are important in order to retain stability.
 
The financial landscape at the end of the crisis will be far more different from the one entered it a little more than a year ago.  Investors will be exceptionally cautious. Structured investment vehicles, all day mortgages, and other exotic financial instruments are not now and unlikely ever find willing buyers. Regretfully, also on that list are there subprime mortgages. The market for which has virtually disappeared. Home and small business ownership are vital commitments to a community. We should seek ways to re-establish a more sustainalbe subprime mortgage market. This crisis will pass, and the America will re-emerge with a far sounder financial system.
10月23日

zz 自bluestar的博客

“表面我们的确光鲜,相爱着而且幸福着,打个不要脸的比方,就像天鹅。游在水面上的
天
鹅从容优雅,不时会引来别人的赞叹和羡慕,但在别人看不到的水下,一双脚蹼在拼命地

不停划水,动作难看又狼狈,并且,越是拥有完美的水上动作,水下就会越拼命,于是越

难看。而一旦停止了这份拼命,水上的优雅也立刻不在。

其实生活真正的主旋律,就是这双拼命蹬着,难看又狼狈的脚蹼,因为没有它们的拼命,

就不会有现在我自认为幸福的生活。但他们却被隐藏了起来,只看到水上优雅从容的人们

,很难想象水下的样子——当然,这是因为我没有全部记录我们的拼命,难看和狼狈。”
10月21日

how human beings would pull through the three crises

Let's see how we are gonna proceed. See the two articles below.
 
 

Europe’s Leadership in Carbon Control at Risk in Credit Crisis

Europe’s Leadership in Carbon Control at Risk in Credit Crisis

Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Some countries in Europe are coal dependent and potentially face higher costs under a system that caps carbon dioxide emissions.

Published: October 20, 2008

BRUSSELS — Europe’s role as a global leader in combating climate change risks becoming the next victim of the global financial crisis.

As the threats of global recession and rising unemployment loom after the expensive bank bailouts, some European leaders are demanding that the trade bloc backpedal on a pledge announced with much fanfare last spring to cut greenhouse emissions by 20 percent and to generate 20 percent of power through renewable sources by 2020.

At a meeting Monday in Luxembourg, the Italian environment minister, Stefania Prestigiacomo, warned that her country had “many requests for changes,” and would support turning the potentially expensive pledge into law only if the issue could be reviewed again next year.

That follows threats by the leaders of Italy, Poland, Latvia and others at the European Union meeting last week in Brussels to veto the measures unless they were softened.

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has pushed European leaders to stick to the deadline of December. That is when negotiations are scheduled to begin about extending beyond 2012 global efforts to cut greenhouse gases under the Kyoto climate treaty.

“There is now a greater possibility that the E.U. misses a deadline it set for itself,” Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said Monday. “That would call into question Europe’s willingness to back up an offer that was applauded by the whole world with specific policies.”

European leaders left the meeting last week saying that they would need unanimity to push forward.

Meanwhile, the American presidential election is likely to make the United States’ policy on climate change more proactive. That could further diminish the global influence that Europeans have so far been able to claim.

“We should not rule out that at some stage whoever becomes president may have completely new ideas,” said Christian Egenhofer, an energy and climate specialist at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. “If the E.U. doesn’t have its policies in place it could be a very weak discussion partner.”

Some energy specialists say that European policy makers seriously misunderstood how difficult it would be to transform the energy sector.

Thomas Schneider, a member of IEEE, a professional association for the advancement of technology, said that some of the most direct ways to lower carbon dioxide would be to deploy large numbers of windmills and nuclear power plants. But he warned that even under the most promising timelines, that would be difficult for Europe to achieve by 2020.

“The financial crisis has exacerbated the issue of how Europe would meet its targets,” Mr. Schneider said, “but this is mainly an engineering problem.”

Even before the credit squeeze became a full-fledged banking crisis, European countries were displaying different levels of enthusiasm for the emissions measures.

On one side are Poland and other coal-dependent nations in Eastern Europe, as well as Italy. These countries face potentially higher costs under a system that caps carbon dioxide emissions from heavy industry, as introduced in 2005.

Some countries also say that they are being asked to do too much too quickly in areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency.

On the other side is France, which uses nuclear sources to generate most of its power, and Britain, which favors climate regulation, partly because it has become a hub for trading permits to emit carbon dioxide. Also favoring regulation are the Dutch and most Nordic countries, which have successfully installed several initiatives to replace fossil fuel-fired power with renewable sources of energy.

Officials in Brussels warn that signs of a weakening commitment by European leaders to fighting climate change could start a chain reaction, lowering ambitions among other central players, like China and India. The resolve of some developing countries to participate in a global climate deal could also weaken if they expect that a strapped Europe will become stingier.

The European system to control emissions is based on the sale of permits to emit carbon that are worth billions of euros. Under the planned overhaul of the system, industries would have to pay for a substantially larger portion of those permits.

Revenue would most likely be earmarked for European governments, but some funds could go toward helping developing countries combat climate change.

Mr. de Boer, the United Nations climate official, said that developing nations had already made it clear that they expected more financial support in exchange for becoming part of a global agreement on climate change.

Alternative Energy Suddenly Faces Headwinds

Alternative Energy Suddenly Faces Headwinds

George Frey/Bloomberg News

Wind turbines in operation at a wind farm owned by Edison Mission Group outside Spanish Fork, Utah.

Published: October 20, 2008

HOUSTON — For all the support that the presidential candidates are expressing for renewable energy, alternative energies like wind and solar are facing big new challenges because of the credit freeze and the plunge in oil and natural gas prices.

Shares of alternative energy companies have fallen even more sharply than the rest of the stock market in recent months. The struggles of financial institutions are raising fears that investment capital for big renewable energy projects is likely to get tighter.

Advocates are concerned that if the prices for oil and gas keep falling, the incentive for utilities and consumers to buy expensive renewable energy will shrink. That is what happened in the 1980s when a decade of advances for alternative energy collapsed amid falling prices for conventional fuels.

“Everyone is in shock about what the new world is going to be,” said V. John White, executive director of the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technology, a California advocacy group. “Surely, renewable energy projects and new technologies are at risk because of their capital intensity.”

Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain both promise ambitious programs to develop various kinds of alternative energy to combat global warming and achieve energy independence.

Mr. Obama talks of creating five million new jobs in renewable energy and nearly tripling the percentage of the nation’s electricity supplied by renewables by 2025. Mr. McCain has run television advertisements showing wind turbines and has pledged to make the United States the “leader in a new international green economy.”

But after years of rapid growth, the sudden headwinds facing renewables point to slowing momentum and greater dependence on government subsidies, mandates and research financing, at a time when Washington is overloaded with economic problems.

John Woolard, chief executive officer of BrightSource Energy, a solar company, said he believed the long-term future for renewables remained promising, though “right now we are looking at tumultuous and unpredictable capital markets.”

Venture capital financing for some advanced solar projects and for experimental biofuels, like ethanol made from plant wastes, is drying up, according to analysts who track investment flows.

At least two wind energy companies have had to delay projects in recent days because of trouble raising capital. Several corn ethanol projects have been delayed for lack of financing in Iowa and Oklahoma since last month, and one plant operator in Ohio filed for bankruptcy protection last week.

Tesla Motors, the maker of battery-powered cars, recently announced it had been forced to delay production of its all-electric Model S sedan, close two offices and lay off workers.

Investment analysts say initial and secondary stock offerings by clean energy companies across global markets have slowed to a crawl since the spring, and for the full year could total less than half of the record $25.4 billion for 2007.

Worldwide project financings for new construction of wind, solar, biofuels and other alternative energy projects this year fell to $17.8 billion in the third quarter, from $23.2 billion in the second quarter, according to New Energy Finance, a research firm in London. The slide is expected to be sharper in the fourth quarter and next year.

In the United States, financing for new projects and venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy this year might still top last year’s results because so much money was in the pipeline at the beginning of the year, but the pace has slowed sharply in the last month.

The next presidential administration, to make good on campaign rhetoric and continue supporting renewables, will have to choose alternative energy over other programs at a time of ballooning deficits. Analysts say that is no sure thing.

“Government funding for renewables is now going to have to compete with levels of government funding in other areas that were unimaginable six months ago,” Mark Flannery, an energy analyst for Credit Suisse, said.

The central questions facing renewables now, experts say, are how long credit will be tight and how low oil and natural gas prices will fall. Oil and gas are still relatively expensive by historical standards, but the prices have fallen by half since July. Some economists expect further declines as the economy weakens.

Wall Street analysts say most utilities and other builders can profitably choose big wind projects over gas-fired plants only when gas prices are $8 per thousand cubic feet or higher. Natural gas settled Monday at about $6.79 per thousand cubic feet, down from about $13.58 on July 3.

“Natural gas at $6 makes wind look like a questionable idea and solar powerunfathomably expensive,” said Kevin Book, a senior vice president at FBR Capital Markets.

Government mandates already on the books, including state rules requiring renewable power generation and federal requirements for production of ethanol, ensure that to some degree, alternative energy markets will continue to exist no matter how low oil and gas prices go. But thecredit crisis means some companies that would like to build facilities to meet that demand are going to have problems. “If you can’t borrow money, you can’t develop renewables,” Mr. Book said.

Renewable energy now meets 7 percent of the nation’s energy needs, and public subsidies have promoted a leap for several alternative energy sources in recent years.

Ethanol is sold nationwide as a gasoline additive, and federal legislation aims to replace a major share of the oil now imported into the United States with domestically produced biofuels in the next 15 years. Enough new wind power was installed in the United States to serve the equivalent of 4.5 million households in 2007, the third year in a row the country led all nations in new wind power.

Renewable energy has become a big business worldwide, with total investment increasing to $148.4 billion last year, from $33.4 billion in 2004, according to Ethan Zindler, head of North American research at New Energy Finance. Mr. Zindler said the upward momentum had halted, and that total investment this year was likely to be lower than last.

In the 1970s, just as in recent years, high prices for fossil fuels led to rising interest in renewables. But when oil prices collapsed in the 1980s, the nascent market for renewable energy fell apart, too. Congress eliminated tax credits for solar energy, ethanol could not compete with cheap gasoline and a wind farm boomlet in California failed to catch on in the rest of the country.

The epicenter of investment and development moved to Europe, with its strong government support for renewables, and began shifting back only when heating oil and natural gas prices shot up again in recent years.

There are some differences this time. Coal, another major competitor of renewables, remains expensive and is facing increasing scrutiny over environmental concerns.

Most important, renewable energy entrepreneurs and experts say, is the growing government and public backing for renewable energy in the United States.

“What is driving the market this time is that we’re at war and this is a security issue,” said Arnold R. Klann, chief executive of BlueFire Ethanol, a California company that is planning to make ethanol out of garbage with the help of $40 million in financing from the Energy Department.

In its recent financial rescue package, Congress provided $17 billion in tax credits to promote various forms of clean power, for everything from plug-in electric vehicles to projects that will capture and store carbon dioxide from coal-burning power plants. Production and investment tax credits were extended for wind energy for one year, geothermal energy for two years and for solar energy for a full eight years.

Meanwhile more than 30 states have enacted standards demanding that utilities generate a minimum proportion — typically 10 to 20 percent — of their power from renewable sources in the next 5 to 10 years.

But some analysts say the government supports may not be enough to propel continued growth for renewables, noting that several states have already relaxed their goals.

“When they can’t meet their targets,” Mr. Book said, “they change them.”

10月20日

Green Policies in California Generated Jobs, Study Finds

Green Policies in California Generated Jobs, Study Finds

Published: October 20, 2008

OAKLAND, Calif. — California’s energy-efficiency policies created nearly 1.5 million jobs from 1977 to 2007, while eliminating fewer than 25,000, according to a study to be released Monday.

The study, conducted by David Roland-Holst, an economist at the Center for Energy, Resources and Economic Sustainability at the University of California, Berkeley, found that while the state’s policies lowered employee compensation in the electric power industry by an estimated $1.6 billion over that period, it improved compensation in the state over all by $44.6 billion.

Built into that figure were increases of $1.2 billion in the light industrial sector, $11.2 billion in wholesale and retail trade, $7.3 billion in the financial and insurance sectors and $17.8 billion in the service sector.

“Consumers were able to reduce energy spending,” the study said, adding that “these savings were diverted to other demand.”

“When consumers shift one dollar of demand from electricity to groceries,” the report said, they create jobs among retailers, wholesalers, food processors and other businesses.

The study, which examined household spending, comes as state and regional initiatives on climate-change policies have been gathering momentum. At the same time, arguments have sharpened over how much it will cost the economy to cut the emission of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels, which are linked to climate change.

Roughly half the country’s electric power is generated by burning coal, the fuel that produces among the highest greenhouse-gas emissions of any in widespread use.

Some economists focus their studies on the cost of converting the power grid to run on low-carbon technologies, like wind energy, or the cost of developing technologies to separate the carbon dioxide from coal-plant emissions and bury it underground. Others focus on the job creating potential of new energy industries.

The Berkeley study is different in that it focuses as much on historical data as on modeling the future. California’s energy-efficiency policies were adopted in 1978, long before the widespread push for greenhouse-gas reductions, but the data they provide is highly relevant to the current economic debate.

Professor Roland-Holst said that he based his calculations on residential spending on electricity over the last 30 years, factoring in both the decrease in per-capita demand for electricity — now 40 percent below the national average — and the increase in California’s electrical rates, which were about 40 percent above the national average in June, the latest month for which data is available. Household spending represents more than 70 percent of the gross state product.

Historically, Professor Roland-Holst said, the decrease in per-capita demand for electricity outstripped the increase in rates. Much of the economic growth, the study said, was driven by both efficiency standards for large appliances like refrigerators and for residential and commercial buildings.

In an interview, Professor Roland-Holst said, “What I wanted to do to support the forward-looking vision is go back and look at the evidence we have in front of us.”

In two months, California is set to adopt broad policies to enforce a new cap on greenhouse gas emissions signed into law two years ago. More detailed regulations will then be developed; that process is likely to be contentious, as it divides the overall costs of the new program among competing sectors of the state’s economy.

9月21日

旋爱

一个12年的同学+好朋友分手了
她自己,她的朋友,认识他们的人都没能猜到这个结局
谁都以为他们能幸福的过一辈子
谁都没想到对她无微不至的他
会在灿烂的5年后
把爱全给了另一个人
 
她很相信星座
她很相信测试里说的-
"一辈子只会真爱一个人"
‘只是可惜,这份爱已经过去了’-她说
 
如果
只是如果
和她有着同样的星座和血型的我
注定一生只能爱一个人
是不是
我们的故事也只是生命中灿烂的焰火?
或者
如果只是做梦
醒来以后请让我失忆
请给我一个 会让我微笑的结果
9月15日

><

Lehman Files for Bankruptcy; Merrill Is Sold

Published: September 14, 2008

This article was reported by Jenny Anderson, Eric Dash and Andrew Ross Sorkin and was written by Mr. Sorkin.

Skip to next paragraph
Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

A figure in a window at Lehman Brothers headquarters in New York on Monday.

Jin Lee/Bloomberg News

Robert Wolf, chairman for the Americas at UBS; one of the top bankers that met at Federal Reserve in Manhattan to discuss the fate of Lehman.

Readers' Comments

"If you wanna hate the rich, fine, but don't think this isn't already trickling down. Here on the Upper East Side where many of the wealthiest live, stores are closing left and right."
Nathan, NYC

In one of the most dramatic days in Wall Street’s history, Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself on Sunday to Bank of America for roughly $50 billion to avert a deepening financial crisis, while another prominent securities firm, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy protection and hurtled toward liquidation after it failed to find a buyer.

The humbling moves, which reshape the landscape of American finance, mark the latest chapter in a tumultuous year in which once-proud financial institutions have been brought to their knees as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars in losses because of bad mortgage finance and real estate investments.

But even as the fates of Lehman and Merrill hung in the balance, another crisis loomed as the insurance giant American International Group appeared to teeter. Staggered by losses stemming from the credit crisis, A.I.G. sought a $40 billion lifeline from the Federal Reserve, without which the company may have only days to survive.

The stunning series of events culminated a weekend of frantic around-the-clock negotiations, as Wall Street bankers huddled in meetings at the behest of Bush administration officials to try to avoid a downward spiral in the markets stemming from a crisis of confidence.

“My goodness. I’ve been in the business 35 years, and these are the most extraordinary events I’ve ever seen,” said Peter G. Peterson, co-founder of the private equity firm the Blackstone Group, who was head of Lehman in the 1970s and a secretary of commerce in the Nixon administration.

It remains to be seen whether the sale of Merrill, which was worth more than $100 billion during the last year, and the controlled demise of Lehman will be enough to finally turn the tide in the yearlong financial crisis that has crippled Wall Street and threatened the broader economy.

Early Monday morning, Lehman said it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York for its holding company in what would be the largest failure of an investment bank since the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert 18 years ago, the Associated Press reported.

Questions remain about how the market will react Monday, particularly to Lehman’s plan to wind down its trading operations, and whether other companies, like A.I.G. and Washington Mutual, the nation’s largest savings and loan, might falter.

Indeed, in a move that echoed Wall Street’s rescue of a big hedge fund a decade ago this week, 10 major banks agreed to create an emergency fund of $70 billion to $100 billion that financial institutions can use to protect themselves from the fallout of Lehman’s failure.

The Fed, meantime, broadened the terms of its emergency loan program for Wall Street banks, a move that could ultimately put taxpayers’ money at risk.

Though the government took control of the troubled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only a week ago, investors have become increasingly nervous about whether major financial institutions can recover from their losses.

How things play out could affect the broader economy, which has been weakening steadily as the financial crisis has deepened over the last year, with unemployment increasing as the nation’s growth rate has slowed.

What will happen to Merrill’s 60,000 employees or Lehman’s 25,000 employees remains unclear. Worried about the unfolding crisis and its potential impact on New York City’s economy, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg canceled a trip to California to meet with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Instead, aides said, Mr. Bloomberg spent much of the weekend working the phones, talking to federal officials and bank executives in an effort to gauge the severity of the crisis.

The weekend that humbled Lehman and Merrill Lynch and rewarded Bank of America, based in Charlotte, N.C., began at 6 p.m. Friday in the first of a series of emergency meetings at the Federal Reserve building in Lower Manhattan.

The meeting was called by Fed officials, with Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. in attendance, and it included top bankers. The Treasury and Federal Reserve had already stepped in on several occasions to rescue the financial system, forcing a shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase this year and backstopping $29 billion worth of troubled assets — and then agreeing to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The bankers were told that the government would not bail out Lehman and that it was up to Wall Street to solve its problems. Lehman’s stock tumbled sharply last week as concerns about its financial condition grew and other firms started to pull back from doing business with it, threatening its viability.

Without government backing, Lehman began trying to find a buyer, focusing on Barclays, the big British bank, and Bank of America. At the same time, other Wall Street executives grew more concerned about their own precarious situation.

The fates of Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers would not seem to be linked; Merrill has the nation’s largest brokerage force and its name is known in towns across America, while Lehman’s main customers are big institutions. But during the credit boom both firms piled into risky real estate and ended up severely weakened, with inadequate capital and toxic assets.

Knowing that investors were worried about Merrill, John A. Thain, its chief executive and an alumnus of Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange, and Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America’s chief executive, began negotiations. One person briefed on the negotiations said Bank of America had approached Merrill earlier in the summer but Mr. Thain had rebuffed the offer. Now, prompted by the reality that a Lehman bankruptcy would ripple through Wall Street and further cripple Merrill Lynch, the two parties proceeded with discussions.

On Sunday morning, Mr. Thain and Mr. Lewis cemented the deal. It could not be determined if Mr. Thain would play a role in the new company, but two people briefed on the negotiations said they did not expect him to stay. Merrill’s “thundering herd” of 17,000 brokers will be combined with Bank of America’s smaller group of wealth advisers and called Merrill Lynch Wealth Management.

Skip to next paragraph
Jin Lee/Bloomberg News

Peter Kraus, head of strategy and investments at Merrill Lynch.

Jin Lee/Bloomberg News

Vikram Pandit, chief of Citigroup.

Jin Lee/Bloomberg News

Steve Black, co-chief of JPMorgan’s investment bank.

 

For Bank of America, which this year bought Countrywide Financial, the troubled mortgage lender, the purchase of Merrill puts it at the pinnacle of American finance, making it the biggest brokerage house and consumer banking franchise.

Bank of America eventually pulled out of its talks with Lehman after the government refused to take responsibility for losses on some of Lehman’s most troubled real-estate assets, something it agreed to do when JP Morgan Chase bought Bear Stearns to save it from a bankruptcy filing in March.

A leading proposal to rescue Lehman would have divided the bank into two entities, a “good bank” and a “bad bank.” Under that scenario, Barclays would have bought the parts of Lehman that have been performing well, while a group of 10 to 15 Wall Street companies would have agreed to absorb losses from the bank’s troubled assets, to two people briefed on the proposal said. Taxpayer money would not have been included in such a deal, they said.

Other Wall Street banks also balked at the deal, unhappy at facing potential losses while Bank of America or Barclays walked away with the potentially profitable part of Lehman at a cheap price.

For Lehman, the end essentially came Sunday morning when its last potential suitor, Barclays, pulled out from a deal, saying it could not obtain a shareholder vote to approve a transaction before Monday morning, something required under London Stock Exchange listing rules, one person close to the matter said. Other people involved in the talks said the Financial Services Authority, the British securities regulator, had discouraged Barclays from pursuing a deal. Peter Truell, a spokesman for Barclays, declined to comment. Lehman’s subsidiaries were expected to remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. Herbert H. McDade III, Lehman’s president, was at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York late Sunday, discussing terms of Lehman’s fate with government officials.

Lehman’s filing is unlikely to resemble those of other companies that seek bankruptcy protection. Because of the harsher treatment that federal bankruptcy law applies to financial-services firms, Lehman cannot hope to reorganize and survive. It was not clear whether the government would appoint a trustee to supervise Lehman’s liquidation or how big the financial backstop would be.

Lehman has retained the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges as its bankruptcy counsel.

The collapse of Lehman is a devastating end for Richard S. Fuld Jr., the chief executive, who has led the bank since it emerged from American Express as a public company in 1994. Mr. Fuld, who steered Lehman through near-death experiences in the past, spent the last several days in his 31st floor office in Lehman’s midtown headquarters on the phone from 6 a.m. until well past midnight trying to save the firm, a person close to the matter said.

A.I.G. will be the next test. Ratings agencies threatened to downgrade A.I.G.’s credit rating if it does not raise $40 billion by Monday morning, a step that would cripple the company. A.I.G. had hoped to shore itself up, in party by selling certain businesses, but potential bidders, including the private investment firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and TPG, withdrew at the last minute because the government refused to provide a financial guarantee for the purchase. A.I.G. rejected an offer by another investor, J. C. Flowers & Company.

The weekend’s events indicate that top officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are taking a harder line on providing government support of troubled financial institutions.

While offering to help Wall Street organize a shotgun marriage for Lehman, both the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Mr. Paulson had warned that they would not put taxpayer money at risk simply to prevent a Lehman collapse.

The message marked a major change in strategy but it remained unclear until at least Friday what would happen. “They were faced after Bear Stearns with the problem of where to draw the line,” said Laurence H. Meyer, a former Fed governor who is now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, a forecasting firm. “It became clear that this piecemeal, patchwork, case-by-case approach might not get the job done.”

Both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke worried that they had already gone much further than they had ever wanted, first by underwriting the takeover of Bear Stearns in March and by the far bigger bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Outside the public eye, Fed officials had acquired much more information since March about the interconnections and cross-exposure to risk among Wall Street investment banks, hedge funds and traders in the vast market for credit-default swaps and other derivatives. In the end, both Wall Street and the Fed blinked.

9月4日

浮躁社会里急功近利的人们 -- 惩罚篇

深圳楼市下跌趋势似无法逆转 悲喜难辨

2008-09-04 16:10  来源:南方周末

  没人知道这辆快车的终点在哪里,当然更没人知道该怎样下车


  8月21日,即便强台风“鹦鹉”登陆在即,在深圳市中心的各个角落,房产中介公司几乎是唯一拒绝在台风天提前放工的行业。


  已是午夜时分,中介们仍旧固守在屋檐下招揽生意,白衣黑裤,风雨中显得寂寥。避雨的人流时不时快步绕开他们,无人理睬。在过去的3年,他们曾是这个城市最火爆行业的执业者,如今,好时光已然不再。


  连续12个月以来,深圳楼市经历了一次惊心的下挫,有数据称,楼市均价以36%的幅度暴跌,好似一头扎进了深圳湾冰冷的海水。如果把更早之前18个月的疯狂上涨算上,深圳楼市在整整30个月里,带着各色人等体验了一回过山车般的晕眩。


  在全国范围内,深圳曾经领涨,而现在开始领跌,最麻烦的是,没人知道这辆快车的终点在哪里,当然更没人知道该怎样下车。


  没人愿意接最后一棒,有负资产投资者自费打广告愿意出售房产,甚至是附送自用的宝马,他没能成交;开发商主动打电话给不认识的炒房客,邀请曾经神通广大的 对方来低价接盘,却得到这样的回答——“兄弟,时移世易了。”曾经和气融融的合作者——银行与买楼者——闹上了法院,法庭之上,银行要被告业主承认签署过 贷款合同,双方争吵起来……


  曾经感叹房地产牛市中品牌作用不大的王石,其执掌的万科公司被发现正低调处理大量空置的楼盘,人们得知那是六折甚至更低,现在连一丝掩饰都不需要。万科是这里乃至全国最大的房地产商,而它的股价现在仅仅是最高点处的六分之一。


  12个月前,速度至上的深圳疯狂地制造着百万富翁、千万富翁、亿万富翁,如今,36%的跌幅让富人持续减少,“负人”涌现,更多的普通人则选择等待,等待 那只“看不见的手”近乎冷酷的调整。有人喜欢,因为那代表了他们最大的渴望,也有人痛恨,它的出现将他们推向了深渊。

背“负”的青春


  “如果贵委裁决支持××银行的请求将是对我全家致命的打击……”


  刘少飞(化名)想过回家,但那只是一个模糊而又略带甜美的梦。


  他频繁被同一条催债短信惊扰,它来自银行,他们警告他,名下的房产已经断供5个月了,而如果继续,将承担所有责任,并背上各种信用污点……


  1983年出生的刘少飞每天一觉醒来,就能算出自己这天又欠了银行多少钱。炒房失败让他接过了传说中击鼓传花的最后一棒。


  在2006年下半年至2007年8月间,深圳的楼市成交活跃甚至疯狂,这对于主要依靠佣金为生的中介行业来说,简直就是黄金年代。按照深圳世华房产中介公司研究部总监肖小平的统计,有些月份的成交量已经达到八九千套,这其中大部分都要经过中介成交。“当时,每天产权登记中心大厅都挤满了人。”一位深圳某区负责房产过户的干部证实说,“曾经一天要接待四五百办理过户手续的人,工作就是不停的盖章,8小时工作制也就480分钟,你自己算算看。”


  刘少飞在2007年初从武汉来到深圳,亲戚告诉他,楼市太好了,特别赚钱,从公务员到出租车司机都炒房了。他留了下来。


  25岁的武汉青年很快成了中介公司的客户经理。第一天上班,他仅仅上网发了几个帖子就引来客户咨询,当天就成交了一套房子,4000元佣金到手了……这并不是做梦。


  曾经的深圳是冒险者的乐园,疯狂的楼市持续造就暴富的“奇迹”。


  他每天听到的是不同的深圳故事:有个农村孩子,来深圳不久,借钱开了一家房产中介公司,赶上了房价暴涨,他用客户的押金聪明地周转拆兑,到处开立分店,业务越来越多,资金也更雄厚……而如今已经是著名的中天置业连锁的老总。他每天拿着价值几十万的镶钻手机,开着名车,住着豪宅……(笔者注:中天置业在2007年底资金链断裂,这位老板不知所终。)


  “每天看着同事随便弄个收入证明,搞个零首付就炒房了,供一两个月后转手,就有几十万元收入,是谁也把持不住。”刘少飞有个女同事,1985年的女孩子,才来深圳没有两年,已经买了5套房,“眼看着就获利了,肯定心动啊,我们不就是干这个的嘛。”


  很快,他不再把房源介绍给下家,而是也学着办了一份收入证明,利用银行私下里越来越低的信贷门槛,用了一些手段,首付两万元买了一套67万元的二手房。可惜,当他刚刚办完所有过户手续,8月——犹如传花的鼓点声骤然而停——楼市“崩盘”了。刘少飞和他的很多同行成了人们笑着四下寻找的那个受害者。


  更不幸的是,他很快在一次意外中摔断了左腿,并被公司扫地出门,事实上,即便他健康,也再没有什么行业能为这个没什么技能的年轻人开出他曾经的薪金。目前,现实的难题是——他的月供是4050元,20年。


  如今,刘少飞把房子租了出去,自己则寄宿在深圳亲戚家。每月为了房屋租金与按揭款之间的差额而奔波,他说他想回家,但他否认会一走了之,他不愿逃贷,他在一封写给深圳某仲裁委员会的信中恳求道:“如果贵委裁决支持××银行的请求将是对我全家致命的打击……”


  事实上,年仅25岁的他已经破产了。

“很多中介到后来都不愿意把信息告诉我们投资客了,他们自己炒了。”深圳著名的投资客,外号邹大胡子的邹健民说,“这次套进去了好多中介公司的人,以前都和我合作过,听说都快撑不下去了。”邹健民是深圳炒家中的大户,曾经同时拥有四五十套房产。


  一个炒房客这样形容2007年8月拐点到来时的境况:“某天一早一觉醒来,发现平时熙熙攘攘的交易大厅没人了,我立即感觉坏事了。马上联系下家,可惜再没人愿意接盘了。”


  沉默的大多数


  断供绝没有网上传言的那样严重,“但也绝不会像银行说的那么轻描淡写。”


  极端的例子已经浮现。不断被曝光的断供事件正被视为疯狂楼市的一剂退烧针。


  7月底,深圳宝安碧水龙庭业主爆出集体断供事件,七十余名业主以开发商对小区配套设施自行变动、“货不对板”为由,要求退房,并集体断供。真实的原因据信是该楼盘已经缩水三分之一的楼价。


  第一起正式的断供诉讼也已鸣锣开审。一位手握5套房子的炒房客,因为资金紧张,无力还贷,最终被银行告上法庭。


  传闻凭借极端事例的演绎,肆虐深圳,一则关于“楼市断供规模达千亿”的网文,竟逼得银行业集体出来辟谣。


  事实上,大多负资产业主并没有立即选择断供这一极端方式,而是尽一切可能寻找交易的机会。不久之前,世华房产的肖小平被同事告知了一件新鲜事:一位业主自费2万元租了一处户外广告招牌,广告上声称,如果有人愿意接手他的一套房产,他将奉上自己的座驾——一辆宝马轿车以作添头。他的同事路过时看到了这幅广告。“是不是真的啊?”肖小平问。同事严肃地点了点头,“我打电话过去问了,是真的……”那辆宝马据说还没能送出去。

沉默的还有大多数自住客。


  28岁的刘同(化名)在2007年房价顶点处购买了平生第一套房。该开发商捂盘惜售,每次只卖一栋楼,价格也随着时间的推移而平步青云。按照牛市的“潜规则”,刘同要付给中间人3万元“喝茶费”才能最终成交。1个月后,房价接近顶点,他给老家的父母打电话,说自己一个月挣了10万,年迈的父母不敢相信,大声问:“多少?”“10万啊。”他大声回答。


  一年后的今天,刘同是负资产人士,他的房产缩水达三分之一。他从没想过要断供。“这对自住者来讲毫无意义。”他说,“就这样吧。”


  刘同更愿意相信这样的事实:很多断供是纠纷断供,是业主出于各种原因维权的手段。“我认了,没什么权可维的。”


  但谁也说不清,甚至刘同自己都不确认,假若房价继续脱缰,他们是否还能如此认命。


  8月18日上午,在深圳首起断供案开庭前,三个被告中的一个在最后时刻达成了交易,将按揭转给了新的接手者,摆脱了断供的危机。


  开始有人怀疑,所谓断供潮或许是开发商蓄意制造乱局,迫使政府出面救市的精心圈套。


  下班时分的深圳地铁里,车厢电视播放着时事新闻,一档地产栏目在这个8月反复提醒人们:深圳的断供风波远没有传说的那么严重。


  但是,隐患仍在。事实上还是会有一些真实的断供者选择一走了之。“真断供的人就怕别人找到他,怎么会大张旗鼓宣扬呢?”邹健民这样说,“现在宣扬的都是有其他目的,比如维权什么的。”他认识一个四川来深圳闯荡的中介客户经理,2007年中,刚刚入行没几个月就一口气买了4套房,贷款400余万,“三四月份我还见过他,现在找不到人了,谁知道银行能不能收回这些烂账。我还听说有人想改身份证呢。”


  邹健民相信:断供绝没有网上传言的那样严重,“但也绝不会像银行说的那么轻描淡写。”至少,他的四川朋友将手中的最后一棒直接扔给了主持人——银行,这个游戏他不玩了。为了证实自己的推测,邹健民也曾经尝试寻找他那个四川朋友,可以预料到的是,对方的手机中传来的永远都是那个关机的女声。

开发商的赛跑


  “现在这种情况就是开发商排队去死,僧多粥少嘛,等泡沫出尽了,没死的就活下来了。”


  刘少飞现在后悔不迭,他从业时间太短,又被火爆的交易冲昏头脑,所有人都曾经生活在真实的欲望之中。


  “现在想想,几乎从一开始就注定了我们会成为接最后一棒的人。”他说,“自己处在那个场里,说实话是看不清局面的,每个人都鼠目寸光。就知道转手、转手……”


  危机其实早已显现。早在2006年下半年,房价开始节节攀升,不少尚有理智的开发商就已经发现形势不妙。“这将透支以后多少年的涨幅呢,这么涨下去就完了。”前深业地产公司高管罗君东回忆,但显然,资金回流和迅速获利是压倒一切的诉求,在这个基础上,短视和功利几乎无可避免。


  2007年12月份,当王石喊出拐点论时,深圳地产业内都将信将疑,甚至认为是万科的阴谋,“因为大家刚刚还在赚钱,怎么可能相信市场马上会拐呢。”当王石自己以及他的万科已经对整个市场警觉时,深圳的开发商们反而对万科与王石更有信心。“太多的开发商高管就买万科的股票,有钱就砸在里面,他们相信只要万科没事,整个行业就没事。”关注深圳房市多年的记者朱文策记得当时的情景。


  显然,从深圳走向全国的万科从没想过为其他开发商断后。奥运还没有结束,8月下旬,万科已经开始在深圳降价,通过大型中介公司,降价精确地针对目标客户,而没有对外张扬,手法极为低调。对外宣称“万科抵给建筑商做工程款”的这批万科城、东方尊玉的房产,据信甚至是以低于六折的价格在出售。这意味着,又一场降价的序幕被业界领头羊万科拉开了。

  事实上,一年来,深圳房价这座大坝早已处处漏水,各种变相的降价行动充斥着市场。规模较小的开发商跑在最前面,它们的资金链最为脆弱,也最需要现金的回流。最初,一个名叫桑泰丹华府的楼盘高调宣称100%补偿业主楼市下跌的损失。当时,这种破坏潜规则的行为引起业界普遍的责难,深圳国土局甚至出来喊话:不支持这种行为。然而,市场的自我调节已经自行启动。

  很快,嘴上不说的开发商们,手里没停。万科推出代号“琢玉”的行动,以补偿装修款的形式弥补业主们的损失。某楼盘也相应推出代号“春雷”的行动,号称要把房价一步降到位。然而,成交量的萎缩说明,相对于人们的预期而言,这样模糊的降价还远远不够。据统计,2008年1至7月,深圳房屋空置率同比上升98%,成交量也同比大幅萎缩。没人买开发商的账。


  二手中介市场更是几至冰点。位列深圳前三甲的一家中介公司,日前已将公司法务部减员90%,因为成交量骤减,自然也没了合同法务工作。

  接着,一个名为佳兆业·茗萃园的楼盘声称让利优惠,房价5开头,部分房型定价为5065元每平米,已经是当时市场最低。但市场显然更愿意相信没有最低只有更低的边际理论。不久,另一楼盘在户外超大广告牌上放出了这样的广告:一个身着V字领低胸装的美女酥胸半露,神情暧昧,说明文字写在胸旁:“再低已经不可能,4开头……”


  事实证明,当降价策略一旦出现,房价这座大坝已然开始崩溃。正如2005年政府出台新房营业税政策,买卖双方在短暂僵持后,买方毫无抵抗地被迫追涨一样,只不过此次变成了反向的结局:在楼市冬天中,房价的决堤以开发商缴械投降,争相杀跌割肉为起始。


  曾经高傲的地产商急不可耐地放下身段,纷纷自断手足,为的只是尽早获利出局、资金回流,业内广为流传的一个事实是,某海景楼盘已经从最高点被斩三分之二,但还是没有什么成交。


  对于开发商来说,不但要尽快降价以求脱身,还要平息之前高价购买房产业主的怒火,降与不降都很难抉择。愤怒的负资产业主伺机寻找开发商的痛脚,他们以断供相威胁,而大量持币者又因此获知更多的楼盘猫腻。刚刚进入某地产公司的刘锦星(化名)被安排到售楼中心,而一到周末他就和同事躲到里屋不敢出来,“时常有之前买房的业主过来发泄,骂一通,大约半个小时,砸个玻璃什么的就走了,我们再出来收拾。”


  “现在这种情况就是开发商排队去死,僧多粥少嘛,等泡沫出尽了,没死的就活下来了。”中原地产掌舵人施永青曾经这样描述他所经历过的3次房地产泡沫崩溃的规律,“涨肯定涨过头,跌也一定跌过头。”
因此,当大多数人都意识到谁跑得快就能够幸存时,楼市的进一步下跌已经无可避免。深圳国土局下属某研究单位曾经以报告形式呼吁政府救市,他们提出要放宽贷款政策以及减免房地产税费的建议,但在整个宏观经济严防通货膨胀的紧缩政策下,这样的建议没有任何实现的可能。


  很快,市场又被割肉声充塞了。

市场中的钱


  巴菲特说,退潮时才能看得出谁在裸泳。而现在,裸泳的人已经站上了沙滩。


  究竟是严冬的开始,还是回暖的春天在望?


  这是一个没有答案的问题,正如在这个市场里,没人能说得清楼市为何会跌,也说不清之前楼市为何而涨。虽然几乎每个人都能自圆其说,而他们的答案又同时漏洞百出。


  但有一点成为很多人的共识:曾经,市场上的钱太多了。而现在,没钱了。货币政策由放松转为适度从紧,直至最后的从紧。


  “现在的情况是有贷款没额度,弄来额度也没钱。”一位不愿意透露姓名的房地产开发商对南方周末记者抱怨。


  曾经,深圳是一个堆满了钞票的城市,银行信贷经理们左手把钱贷给开发商,右手就贷给了买房者,左右互搏的结果是源源不断的利息汇入银行的财务报表,而各方都得到了他们想要的,这貌似形成了一种最优效应。可是,这一皆大欢喜的结果仅仅只是存在于牛市的某些条件之下——更多的投资者,更显著的价格上升趋势,对后市更高的预期……


  12个月前,本报在报道深圳楼市疯狂上涨时,某银行信贷部总经理已经表达了他的担忧,他不希望自己的银行成为最终的那个裸泳者。“所有的风险防范,都是为了应付将来的那一次不景气。”他曾经如是说。如今,“那一次不景气”已经到来。


  如巴菲特所说,退潮时才能看得出谁在裸泳。而现在,裸泳的人已经站上了沙滩。


  采访中,一位开发商曾经提起了自己一次失败的招拍挂经历:在最火爆的年月,他竞价一块市中心黄金地块,“我每次举牌,另一家公司都毫不考虑地举牌压我,好似他们根本不考虑价格,我百思不得其解,因为据我了解他们根本就没有这么多现金流……”最终他被对方貌似无限的资金击败,退出了竞拍。“没过几天,一家大型国有银行过来找我谈,原来之前那个公司突然出了其他问题没法开发那块地了,我这才知道其实一直是这家银行在背后用资金全力支持他们的。银行害怕自己被撂在旱地上……”


  曾经的深圳地产界不会为资金发愁。一个经典的传说是:一个开发商从招拍挂现场出来,就马上被四五个银行的贷款经理围住,“你需不需要钱?”经理们陪笑着。


  事实上,在楼价最疯狂的时段,不同银行之间,甚至是同一银行不同分行之间,贷款业务都存在着竞争。“业务员只管把钱贷出去,就是完成任务。”邹健民这样形容,他的一个朋友虚开了一个收入证明,“就从银行贷出了几百万,买了十几套房,呵呵,他都没工作的。银行其实就是睁一眼闭一眼吧。”


  刘少飞亲身体验过这种默认,他在银行帮助客户违规修改三方协议价格时(可以将总成交价虚开更高,以从银行获得更多的贷款,某种情况下甚至能超过实际成交价格,这几乎是中介行业已经成熟的“技巧”),银行一位客户经理责怪他们没有事先改好,说:“你们去那边弄好再拿过来,别在这弄。”


  现实的情况是,客户可以在不同银行甚至是同一银行不同分行之间任意选择,而标准是哪家银行给的贷款更多。“经常会陷入类似买白菜一般的砍价,而标的物是贷款额度。”刘少飞如是说。


  曾经有银行贷款业务员找到邹健民,要求他帮忙寻找能够放出贷款的人,并承诺每贷出100万给邹提成1000元。而据一位知情人所知,去年7、8月份时,很多银行把全年的贷款任务全完成了。“没事做了,信贷经理们都出国旅游去了。”他说。


  一段时间内,市场上充满了钱,而几乎所有人都觉得挣更多的钱是理所当然。一位开发商向南方周末记者讲述了这样一个故事,他们曾经为拿到一片偏僻的农村用地付出了艰苦努力:在为一行村干部的贵州游埋单二十余万后,掌管这片土地的村书记终于开口了,他首先要求开发商确保上级单位的财政收入,而最后,他讪讪地问:“至于我个人这部分,你们打算出多少?”

  不是尾声


  那看起来就好似一个骤然隆起的泡,而圆滑的曲线尽头向下倒悬在“2008年上”这个暂时的节点。


  银行还只是频繁以催债短信提醒断供者刘少飞,如果断供依旧,相信律师函也会随后寄出,但是否追之以强硬的诉讼官司,尚未可知。一位业内人士透露,银行业仍在斟酌诉讼风险,这取决于楼市的进一步走向,也取决于购房者的真正承受力。


  有多年诉讼实践的深圳地产律师伍江归纳自己的经验为,楼市平稳期,多为市民与开发商的质量纠纷,涨跌时代,多为市民与市民的买卖纠纷,也许不久,市民与银行的断供纠纷到来,那就是“崩盘”时代了。


  政府当此微妙时刻,不出意料地谨言慎行,深圳国土资源与房产局的一位工作人员意味深长地婉拒本报的采访要求,“现在说什么都是错”。


  但楼市的裹胁下,谁都安身不得。最近的一则消息称,深圳部分地产公司,基于对利润前景的看淡,已无力支付地价款,这个冬天,政府一样难脱寒冷。


   时间进入8月,有政府背景的深圳房地产研究中心发布了一份《深圳房地产市场综合指数运行报告》。在其中的消费者信心指数章节,研究者为2003年至今的深圳楼市画了一幅图示,那看起来就好似一个骤然隆起的泡,而圆滑的曲线尽头向下倒悬在“2008年上”这个暂时的节点。

8月6日

irresponsible

暖暖阳光懒懒爬进窗
又有微醺淡淡咖啡香
恍然你又在身旁
笑容星一样明亮
打开故事书翻到下一页
 
你说云落泪了风会吹干它
可是风叹息又怎么安慰呢
你说就随它去吧
叫我如何放得下
 
候鸟会不会停留
一生算不算太久
未来有没有尽头
够不够 带我走
 
只想抱着你的背脊不想放
为何美的东西总叫人悲伤
只怕你每次转身
我都以为看见明天的艳阳
 
如果爱上你只是一个梦境
醒来后又该如何重新睡去
 
如果失去记忆
能否再一见钟情
能否 再一见钟情
5月29日

zz

Sing, like no one's listening
Dance, like no one's watching
Love, like you've never been hurt
Live, as if heaven is on earth...

Will you take me there?
Sniff, with hope
2月26日

馬祖匹祖高地 之 12

MachuPicchu
 
耕者,織者,沉默的牧人:
守護神野駱馬的馴服者:
被挑釁的絞刑台的石匠:
安底斯山淚水的持瓶者:
手指被搗碎的珠寶商:
在穀粒間顫抖的農夫:

濺灑你的黏土的陶工:
把你們古老,埋在地下的哀愁
倒進這新生命的杯子吧。
給我看你們的血跟你們的犁溝。
告訴我:我在這兒受罰,
因為一顆寶石它不發光,因為土地
不能及時生出石頭或穀粒:
給我看你們摔上去的石頭
以及他們用來絞死你們的木頭。
點燃那些古老的燧石,
那些古老的燈,那些跨過千百個世紀
黏到傷口的鞭子,
以及沾著血腥光彩的斧頭。
我來借你們死去的嘴巴說話。

 

讓四處分散的沉寂的嘴唇
自泥土的每一部份集合起來,
並且從無底的深淵終夜不斷地對我說話
彷彿我像錨一樣緊繫著你
告訴我每一樣事物,一鏈接一鏈,
一環接一環,一級接一級地;
磨利你積藏的刀叉,
將它們刺進我的胸膛,刺進我的手,
彷彿一河黃色的光芒,
一河被埋葬的老虎,
並且讓我哭泣,每一小時,每一天,每一年,
每一盲眼的時代,星星的世紀。

 

給我寂靜,水,希望。

給我掙扎,鐵,火山。 

讓屍體像磁鐵一樣黏住我。 

來到我的血脈和我的嘴。 

用我的聲音、我的血說話。

無法遺忘

如果你問我上那兒去了,
我必得說「事情發生了」。
我必得提及路石模糊的地面
以及始終自我毀滅的河流:
我只知道鳥兒丟失的事物,
被拋在腦後的大海,以及我姊姊的哭泣。
為什麼有那麼多的地區,為什麼一天
緊接著另一天?為什麼漆黑的夜晚
在口中堆積?為什麼有人死去?
如果你問我打那兒來,我必得和破碎的事物交談,
和苦澀的器皿,
和腐爛的巨獸,
以及我受創的心。


那些跨過我思緒的不是記憶,
也不是在我們遺忘中熟睡的黃鴿,
而是帶淚的臉孔,
探入喉頭的手指
以及自樹葉中掉落的:
被我們憂傷的血液滋養的歲月
——
那逝去的歲月它的黑暗。


這裡有紫羅蘭,燕子
每樣令我們愉悅、出現在
甜蜜精美的卡片上的事物
——
時間和甘美漫步其間。


但讓我們不要再去探索齒後的一切,
不要再去啃嚙寂靜堆築起來的外殼,
因為我不知道該如何回答:
有那麼多的死者,
有那麼多被紅日割裂的提防,
有那麼多碰撞船身的頭顱,
有那麼多圍藏吻的手,
以及那麼多我想遺忘的事物。