A necessary condition for this crisis to end is the stabilization of the home prices in the US. They will stablize and clarify the level of equity in the US homes, the ultimate collateral support for the value of much of the world mortgage-back securities.

 

To avoid severe retrenchment, banks and other financial intermediaries will need the support that only the substitution of solvent credit for private credit can bestow.

 

The breakdown is most apparent in securitization of home mortgages.

 

Without the access demand from securitizers, subprime mortgage originations are deniably the original sources of the crisis.

 

But with US home prices still rising, delinquency and foreclosure rate were deceptively modest. Losses were minimal to the most sophisticated investors in the world.

 

The consequences surge in global demand for US subprime securities by banks, hedge, and pension funds. Demand became so aggressive that too many securitizers and lenders believe they could create and sell mortgage-back securities so quickly that they never put their shareholder's capital at risk, and hence did not have the incentive to evaluate the credit quality of what they were selling. Purchasing of these toxic assets has let to huge losses. It was the failure to properly price such risk assets that precipitated the crisis.

 

The data put into the risk management models only covered only the past two decades. Instead if the model has been fed more properly by the historical period of stress, capital requirement would have been much higher, and the financial world would have been in a far better shape today in Greenspan's adjugement. In this financial environment I see no choice, Greenspan says, but to require all securitizers retain a meaningful part of the securities they issue. This will offset in part the market defficiencies stumming from the failures of counterparty surveillance. Regulatory changes in fraud settlement and securitization are important in order to retain stability.

 

The financial landscape at the end of the crisis will be far more different from the one entered it a little more than a year ago.  Investors will be exceptionally cautious. Structured investment vehicles, all day mortgages, and other exotic financial instruments are not now and unlikely ever find willing buyers. Regretfully, also on that list are there subprime mortgages. The market for which has virtually disappeared. Home and small business ownership are vital commitments to a community. We should seek ways to re-establish a more sustainalbe subprime mortgage market. This crisis will pass, and the America will re-emerge with a far sounder financial system.

Let's see how we are gonna proceed. See the two articles below.

 

 

一个１２年的同学＋好朋友分手了

她自己，她的朋友，认识他们的人都没能猜到这个结局

谁都以为他们能幸福的过一辈子

谁都没想到对她无微不至的他

会在灿烂的５年后

把爱全给了另一个人

 

她很相信星座

她很相信测试里说的－

＂一辈子只会真爱一个人＂

‘只是可惜，这份爱已经过去了’－她说

 

如果

只是如果

和她有着同样的星座和血型的我

注定一生只能爱一个人

是不是

我们的故事也只是生命中灿烂的焰火？

或者

如果只是做梦

醒来以后请让我失忆

请给我一个　会让我微笑的结果

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Published: September 14, 2008

This article was reported by Jenny Anderson, Eric Dash and Andrew Ross Sorkin and was written by Mr. Sorkin.

In one of the most dramatic days in Wall Street’s history, Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself on Sunday to Bank of America for roughly $50 billion to avert a deepening financial crisis, while another prominent securities firm, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy protection and hurtled toward liquidation after it failed to find a buyer.

The humbling moves, which reshape the landscape of American finance, mark the latest chapter in a tumultuous year in which once-proud financial institutions have been brought to their knees as a result of hundreds of billions of dollars in losses because of bad mortgage finance and real estate investments.

But even as the fates of Lehman and Merrill hung in the balance, another crisis loomed as the insurance giant American International Group appeared to teeter. Staggered by losses stemming from the credit crisis, A.I.G. sought a $40 billion lifeline from the Federal Reserve, without which the company may have only days to survive.

The stunning series of events culminated a weekend of frantic around-the-clock negotiations, as Wall Street bankers huddled in meetings at the behest of Bush administration officials to try to avoid a downward spiral in the markets stemming from a crisis of confidence.

“My goodness. I’ve been in the business 35 years, and these are the most extraordinary events I’ve ever seen,” said Peter G. Peterson, co-founder of the private equity firm the Blackstone Group, who was head of Lehman in the 1970s and a secretary of commerce in the Nixon administration.

It remains to be seen whether the sale of Merrill, which was worth more than $100 billion during the last year, and the controlled demise of Lehman will be enough to finally turn the tide in the yearlong financial crisis that has crippled Wall Street and threatened the broader economy.

Early Monday morning, Lehman said it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New York for its holding company in what would be the largest failure of an investment bank since the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert 18 years ago, the Associated Press reported.

Questions remain about how the market will react Monday, particularly to Lehman’s plan to wind down its trading operations, and whether other companies, like A.I.G. and Washington Mutual, the nation’s largest savings and loan, might falter.

Indeed, in a move that echoed Wall Street’s rescue of a big hedge fund a decade ago this week, 10 major banks agreed to create an emergency fund of $70 billion to $100 billion that financial institutions can use to protect themselves from the fallout of Lehman’s failure.

The Fed, meantime, broadened the terms of its emergency loan program for Wall Street banks, a move that could ultimately put taxpayers’ money at risk.

Though the government took control of the troubled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only a week ago, investors have become increasingly nervous about whether major financial institutions can recover from their losses.

How things play out could affect the broader economy, which has been weakening steadily as the financial crisis has deepened over the last year, with unemployment increasing as the nation’s growth rate has slowed.

What will happen to Merrill’s 60,000 employees or Lehman’s 25,000 employees remains unclear. Worried about the unfolding crisis and its potential impact on New York City’s economy, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg canceled a trip to California to meet with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Instead, aides said, Mr. Bloomberg spent much of the weekend working the phones, talking to federal officials and bank executives in an effort to gauge the severity of the crisis.

The weekend that humbled Lehman and Merrill Lynch and rewarded Bank of America, based in Charlotte, N.C., began at 6 p.m. Friday in the first of a series of emergency meetings at the Federal Reserve building in Lower Manhattan.

The meeting was called by Fed officials, with Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. in attendance, and it included top bankers. The Treasury and Federal Reserve had already stepped in on several occasions to rescue the financial system, forcing a shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase this year and backstopping $29 billion worth of troubled assets — and then agreeing to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The bankers were told that the government would not bail out Lehman and that it was up to Wall Street to solve its problems. Lehman’s stock tumbled sharply last week as concerns about its financial condition grew and other firms started to pull back from doing business with it, threatening its viability.

Without government backing, Lehman began trying to find a buyer, focusing on Barclays, the big British bank, and Bank of America. At the same time, other Wall Street executives grew more concerned about their own precarious situation.

The fates of Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers would not seem to be linked; Merrill has the nation’s largest brokerage force and its name is known in towns across America, while Lehman’s main customers are big institutions. But during the credit boom both firms piled into risky real estate and ended up severely weakened, with inadequate capital and toxic assets.

Knowing that investors were worried about Merrill, John A. Thain, its chief executive and an alumnus of Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange, and Kenneth D. Lewis, Bank of America’s chief executive, began negotiations. One person briefed on the negotiations said Bank of America had approached Merrill earlier in the summer but Mr. Thain had rebuffed the offer. Now, prompted by the reality that a Lehman bankruptcy would ripple through Wall Street and further cripple Merrill Lynch, the two parties proceeded with discussions.

On Sunday morning, Mr. Thain and Mr. Lewis cemented the deal. It could not be determined if Mr. Thain would play a role in the new company, but two people briefed on the negotiations said they did not expect him to stay. Merrill’s “thundering herd” of 17,000 brokers will be combined with Bank of America’s smaller group of wealth advisers and called Merrill Lynch Wealth Management.

 

Bank of America eventually pulled out of its talks with Lehman after the government refused to take responsibility for losses on some of Lehman’s most troubled real-estate assets, something it agreed to do when JP Morgan Chase bought Bear Stearns to save it from a bankruptcy filing in March.

A leading proposal to rescue Lehman would have divided the bank into two entities, a “good bank” and a “bad bank.” Under that scenario, Barclays would have bought the parts of Lehman that have been performing well, while a group of 10 to 15 Wall Street companies would have agreed to absorb losses from the bank’s troubled assets, to two people briefed on the proposal said. Taxpayer money would not have been included in such a deal, they said.

Other Wall Street banks also balked at the deal, unhappy at facing potential losses while Bank of America or Barclays walked away with the potentially profitable part of Lehman at a cheap price.

For Lehman, the end essentially came Sunday morning when its last potential suitor, Barclays, pulled out from a deal, saying it could not obtain a shareholder vote to approve a transaction before Monday morning, something required under London Stock Exchange listing rules, one person close to the matter said. Other people involved in the talks said the Financial Services Authority, the British securities regulator, had discouraged Barclays from pursuing a deal. Peter Truell, a spokesman for Barclays, declined to comment. Lehman’s subsidiaries were expected to remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. Herbert H. McDade III, Lehman’s president, was at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York late Sunday, discussing terms of Lehman’s fate with government officials.

Lehman’s filing is unlikely to resemble those of other companies that seek bankruptcy protection. Because of the harsher treatment that federal bankruptcy law applies to financial-services firms, Lehman cannot hope to reorganize and survive. It was not clear whether the government would appoint a trustee to supervise Lehman’s liquidation or how big the financial backstop would be.

Lehman has retained the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges as its bankruptcy counsel.

The collapse of Lehman is a devastating end for Richard S. Fuld Jr., the chief executive, who has led the bank since it emerged from American Express as a public company in 1994. Mr. Fuld, who steered Lehman through near-death experiences in the past, spent the last several days in his 31st floor office in Lehman’s midtown headquarters on the phone from 6 a.m. until well past midnight trying to save the firm, a person close to the matter said.

A.I.G. will be the next test. Ratings agencies threatened to downgrade A.I.G.’s credit rating if it does not raise $40 billion by Monday morning, a step that would cripple the company. A.I.G. had hoped to shore itself up, in party by selling certain businesses, but potential bidders, including the private investment firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and TPG, withdrew at the last minute because the government refused to provide a financial guarantee for the purchase. A.I.G. rejected an offer by another investor, J. C. Flowers & Company.

The weekend’s events indicate that top officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are taking a harder line on providing government support of troubled financial institutions.

While offering to help Wall Street organize a shotgun marriage for Lehman, both the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and Mr. Paulson had warned that they would not put taxpayer money at risk simply to prevent a Lehman collapse.

The message marked a major change in strategy but it remained unclear until at least Friday what would happen. “They were faced after Bear Stearns with the problem of where to draw the line,” said Laurence H. Meyer, a former Fed governor who is now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, a forecasting firm. “It became clear that this piecemeal, patchwork, case-by-case approach might not get the job done.”

Both Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke worried that they had already gone much further than they had ever wanted, first by underwriting the takeover of Bear Stearns in March and by the far bigger bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Outside the public eye, Fed officials had acquired much more information since March about the interconnections and cross-exposure to risk among Wall Street investment banks, hedge funds and traders in the vast market for credit-default swaps and other derivatives. In the end, both Wall Street and the Fed blinked.

暖暖阳光懒懒爬进窗
又有微醺淡淡咖啡香
恍然你又在身旁
笑容星一样明亮
打开故事书翻到下一页

 

你说云落泪了风会吹干它
可是风叹息又怎么安慰呢
你说就随它去吧
叫我如何放得下

 

候鸟会不会停留
一生算不算太久
未来有没有尽头
够不够 带我走

 

只想抱着你的背脊不想放
为何美的东西总叫人悲伤
只怕你每次转身
我都以为看见明天的艳阳

 

如果爱上你只是一个梦境
醒来后又该如何重新睡去

 

如果失去记忆
能否再一见钟情
能否 再一见钟情

 

如果你問我上那兒去了，
我必得說「事情發生了」。
我必得提及路石模糊的地面
以及始終自我毀滅的河流：
我只知道鳥兒丟失的事物，
被拋在腦後的大海，以及我姊姊的哭泣。
為什麼有那麼多的地區，為什麼一天
緊接著另一天？為什麼漆黑的夜晚
在口中堆積？為什麼有人死去？
如果你問我打那兒來，我必得和破碎的事物交談，
和苦澀的器皿，
和腐爛的巨獸，
以及我受創的心。

那些跨過我思緒的不是記憶，
也不是在我們遺忘中熟睡的黃鴿，
而是帶淚的臉孔，
探入喉頭的手指
以及自樹葉中掉落的：
被我們憂傷的血液滋養的歲月——
那逝去的歲月它的黑暗。

這裡有紫羅蘭，燕子，
每樣令我們愉悅、出現在
甜蜜精美的卡片上的事物——
時間和甘美漫步其間。

但讓我們不要再去探索齒後的一切，
不要再去啃嚙寂靜堆築起來的外殼，
因為我不知道該如何回答：
有那麼多的死者，
有那麼多被紅日割裂的提防，
有那麼多碰撞船身的頭顱，
有那麼多圍藏吻的手，
以及那麼多我想遺忘的事物。

Puedo escribir los versos más tristes esta noche.

Escribir: por ejemplo: «La noche está estrellada,
y tiritan, azules, los astros, a lo lejos.» 

El viento de la noche gira en el cielo y canta.

Puedo escribir los versos más tristes esta noche.
Yo la quise, y a veces ella también me quiso.

En las noches como ésta la tuve entre mis brazos.
La besé tantas veces bajo el cielo infinito.

Ella me quiso, a veces yo también la quería.
Cómo no haber amado sus grandes ojos fijos. 

Puedo escribir los versos más tristes esta noche.
Pensar que no la tengo. Sentir que la he perdido. 

Oír la noche inmensa, más inmensa sin ella.
Y el verso cae al alma como al pasto el rocío. 

Qué importa que mi amor no pudiera guardarla.
la noche está estrellada y ella no está conmigo. 

Eso es todo. A lo lejos alguien canta. A lo lejos.
Mi alma no se contenta con haberla perdido. 

Como para acercarla mi mirada la busca.
Mi corazón la busca, y ella no está conmigo. 

la misma noche que hace blanquear los mismos árboles.
Nosotros, los de entonces, ya no somos los mismos. 

Ya no la quiero, es cierto, pero cuánto la quise.
Mi voz buscaba el viento para tocar su oído. 

De otro. Será de otro. Como antes de mis besos.
Su voz, su cuerpo claro. Sus ojos infinitos. 

Ya no la quiero, es cierto, pero tal vez la quiero.
Es tan corto el amor, y es tan largo el olvido. 

Porque en noches como ésta la tuve entre mis brazos,
mi alma no se contenta con haberla perdido. 

Aunque éste sea el último dolor que ella me causa,
y éstos sean los últimos versos que yo le escribo.

 

今夜我可以寫出最哀傷的詩篇。

寫，譬如說，「夜被擊碎
而藍色的星在遠處顫抖。」

晚風在天空中迴旋歌唱。

今夜我可以寫出最哀傷的詩篇。
我愛她，而有時候她也愛我。

而許多彷彿此刻的夜裡我擁她入懷。
在永恆的天空下一遍一遍地吻她。
 
她愛我，而有時候我也愛她。
你怎能不愛她晶瑩碩大的眼睛？
 
今夜我可以寫出最哀傷的詩篇。
想到不能擁有她，想到已經失去了她。　
 
聽到那遼闊的夜，因她不在而更遼闊。
詩遂如草原上的露珠滴落心靈。
 
我的愛不能叫她留下有什麼好難過的呢？
夜被擊碎而她離我遠去。
 
都過去了。在遠處有人歌唱。在遠處。
我的心不甘就此失去她。
 
我的眼光搜尋著彷彿要走向她。
我的心在找她，而她離我遠去。
 
相同的夜漂白著相同的樹。
昔日的我們已不復存在。
 
如今我確已不再愛她，但我曾經多愛她啊。
我的聲音試著藉風探觸她的聽覺。
 
別人的。她就將是別人的了。一如我過去的吻。
她的聲音。她明亮的身體。她永恆的眼睛。

如今我確已不再愛她。但也許我仍愛著她。
愛是這麼短，遺忘是這麼長。
 
因為在許多彷彿此刻的夜裡我擁她入懷，
我的心不甘就此失去她。

即令這是她帶給我的最後的痛苦，
 而這些是我為她寫的最後詩篇。

ribbons

 

 

现在才明白自己是一个多么害怕孤独的孩子。。。

常常跟他们讲起过去在Toronto的两年并不开心 -- 不是因为没有朋友，只是自己都不明白为什么表面硬撑的躯壳底下为什么总是藏着那么寒冷的灵魂。所有人都是需要爱的吧，可是没有人能体会18岁后的6年里没有办法真正找到能融化冻结心灵的温暖的那种绝望。不知道是太贪心还是太脆弱，虽然一路走来总有不错的运气，虽然总以为自己已经坚强到麻木到冷血，可是当失望到已经没法再期望，麻痹自己变成了逃避现实的最佳手段。那种对家人对自己对所有爱我的人的责任感成了最重要的支撑，可能已经逐渐能体会到anego的心情了吧，各种各样的危机感接踵而至；即使是anego还知道自己想要什么却得不到，而我，过去六年的我，虽然从没放弃过奋斗，却连自己想要得都看不到。

Roger曾经问我是不是也觉得本命年很霉，Hao-yuh和我相视而笑：这一年真是什么怪事倒霉事都让我碰上了。可是，有些话我并没能说出来：知道吗? 其实刚过去的2007年是我最开心的一年。能来到这个学校，感受这里奇特的文化，能和MIT作邻居（不管你们怎么损Harvard=p), 被这么多优秀的人们包围着，那种幸福的感觉是从来都没有过的。

谢谢你，Hao-yuh, 谢谢你在刚过去的12月里教会我蟑螂的坚强，谢谢你的倾听和分享，谢谢我们一起喝酒聊天的快乐时光，谢谢你的乐观和笑容，谢谢你从Time Square发来的新年的明媚的祝福。谢谢你的音乐，你的歌声，谢谢你和我们一起庆祝你自己和Gao Wei的生日。谢谢你在SEAS Holiday Party上帮我解围，谢谢你和我还有Jane共度的xmas eve。谢谢你亲身诠释什么是宽容和随和，谢谢你在我无助的时候给我的建议。谢谢你推荐给我的美食，谢谢你勇敢的吃掉Legal Seafood那个巨大的baked potato =p。谢谢我们一起打球时你拼命的样子给我的鼓励，谢谢你给我还有我给你起的绰号，谢谢我们一起八卦的故事，你在Facebook上认真地quote我说的话还有你送的冰淇淋。认识你真的是我的幸运。

谢谢你，Roger, 真的不知道该怎么表达我的感谢，只想让你知道你对我来说是多么重要的"ice breaker", 让我的2007年的最后两个星期变得如此难忘。谢谢你在我滑雪摔得乱七八糟的时候伸出的援手，谢谢你做我的司机，在我心情不好的时候陪我去海边（那是我这辈子见过最神奇的月光下的海滩+冷死我了@@), 谢谢你玩杀人时一直搅局，还有开心的温暖的每一点一滴。还有最重要的，谢谢你没有放纵我的任性和冲动，给我冷静的时间，去懂得和珍惜。无论你离开的2008年1月是不是一个终结，我都会好好保存这段记忆；在今后的日子里，把你当作最好的朋友去爱，感谢上天让我遇见优秀，开朗和细心的你。

谢谢你，Gao Wei大哥+半个老乡，谢谢你组织的所有活动，而且每次都算我一个，谢谢你的照顾，谢谢你让我认识那么多MIT的朋友 （虽然你一直问我为什么总和MIT-ers混在一起+是不是被Harvard-ers踢出来了），谢谢你唱得那么多好听的歌，谢谢你和我们一起过生日（虽然你的生日礼物我一直没想出买什么），谢谢你的拥抱，谢谢你教我滑雪，帮我克服心理障碍，指出我的错误和问题。谢谢你在career上给我的建议，你的坚定的自信为我做了很好的榜样。谢谢你的火锅，一起看烟火，每次都怀疑我是杀手（这该感谢吗@@)。谢谢你为大家做的一切，谢谢你擦亮了我倒霉的本命年。祝你在纽约的新生活成为你想更高目标奋斗的美好起点，加油！！！

谢谢你，Vivien, 谢谢你陪我看Nodame Cantabile看到早上四点多，谢谢你让我认识神学院的同学们，谢谢我们一起吃饭聊天八卦逛街，谢谢你帮我和Harvard的中国同学们维系了联系，谢谢你给我烤平生第一个蛋糕的机会并且作第一个鉴定者+支持者（更坚定了我做dessert chef的决心=)，谢谢你在gloomy New England wintier邀请我去享受加州的阳光, 谢谢你告诉我我是一个让你觉得舒服的朋友。

谢谢你们，Amos, Nan, Scott, Wei, 你们是我在Harvard最感激的人，谢谢你们支持我组织的Tuesday/Thursday Lunch, 谢谢你们让我看见了Harvard最上进最纯朴最善良也最平易近人的一群人。谢谢你，Amos（还有Karen -- 最可爱的一对=)，祝我们以后share办公室愉快+工作愉快，还有弹琴愉快。谢谢你，Nan, 谢谢你一直做我的grocery-mate, 帮我从加拿大带回重要的记忆，谢谢你对八卦新闻的支持，谢谢你请我去听京剧，谢谢你还有Scott让我看到对research得认真和热情。谢谢你Scott, I really appreciate your loyalty and commitment to your religion. 谢谢你让我在这个浮躁的社会里看到这样纯洁，平静和年轻的精神。 谢谢你，Wei, we share lots of similar experience. 谢谢你在学习工作还有学校各种莫名其妙的policy上给我的建议。

谢谢你们，Joe and Martin, 谢谢你们做我的office-mates, 你们真的是非常棒的companion呢，在选择老板上给我重要的信息，和我聊天，开玩笑，你们的存在让我觉得温暖和幸福。虽然一个星期后我们就永远不再是officemates了，可是这个永远洒满阳光的办公室，还有你们，还有小蛇Wilber, 我永远都不会忘记。

谢谢你，Seungyung, 你真的是我的amazing flatmate. I'm so impressed by your generosity, optimistic spirit, and outgoing personality. 虽然每次大扫除还是要由我来组织，可是你每次认真的样子都让我看见一个韩国女生身上不可多得的优秀品质。

谢谢你们，Shu-hsien, Jack, Emily, Sally, Ting-yi, 还有其他很多很多的台湾朋友，你们让我了解了和我很不一样的你们的成长经历，让我接触了许多我从前没机会接触的东西。你们的热情和open-mindedness让我和你们渡过了许多难忘的时光。

谢谢你们，Joe, Christoph, Julien, Charles, JM, Etienne, Cristen, and all other friends in Canada, 你们是我在加拿大最舍不得放下的回忆。谢谢我们曾经一起skating, skiing, taking trip together to Montreal, 谢谢你们在那个寒冷的国度尽全力给我的温暖。

谢谢你们，Cherrie, 还有其他UofT undergrad的朋友，每当我想起你们的年轻的活力和永远用不完的能量，自己就像被充足了电一样。还有小Cherrie, 你真的是个很神奇的女生呢，我会记住你告诉我的你的梦想，相信你自己，总有一天会实现，你也会遇见那个真正属于你的另一半圆圈。

谢谢你们，Yonggang, Dick, Guido, 还有所有组员，谢谢你们过去对我的照顾和关心。Yonggang, 要早点毕业哦。

谢谢你，Zhao Yi, 有你在的日子让我觉得快乐，谢谢过去我们贫嘴抬杠的经历。谢谢你新年的祝福。祝你和你lp永远幸福。

搬家：http://lulusmania.blogspot.com/

 

我一定会坚持下去！！

在郁闷至死之前幻想永不停滞的旅行。。。

我常常用思考的时间去贪婪的呼吸，却忘了呼吸的目的。。。

有一种东西，我不停的许诺给自己：

如果看不到希望，就继续前行。。。

斗志

无法言喻的生活

和忘记了的回忆